Imports Plummet as Tariffs Slash Retail Orders
The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates have revised their import forecasts for the first half of 2025. The new projections show a significant slowdown due to tariffs, with June expected to have the lowest import volumes in over a year and a half.
Previously forecasted at a 5.7% year-over-year increase, imports for the first half of 2025 are now expected to grow by only 0.3%. This revision comes as retailers pause or cancel orders due to the impact of escalating tariffs. May and June are set to have the lowest import volumes since March 2023, with June expected to be the lowest in over a year and a half.
The NRF's Global Port Tracker report, free to retail members, provides historical data and forecasts for major U.S. ports. The report indicates that imports are expected to be down at least 20% year over year from June into this fall, potentially leading to an annual volume decrease of more than 10%. Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF, attributed this decline to higher costs for businesses and reduced cargo volumes caused by tariffs.
The revised forecasts highlight the significant impact of tariffs on import volumes and retail businesses. With imports expected to decline year-over-year for the first time in over a year and a half, retailers, especially smaller ones, are expressing concern about future ordering. The NRF continues to advocate for policies that help the retail industry succeed in this challenging environment.
