Anticipated Swift Increase in Demand for Skilled Workers - Rapid expansion of skilled labor deficiency predicted by IW research
A new study by the Institute of the German Economy (IW) has revealed a significant skills gap in various professions across Germany, with the potential shortage of approximately 3.4 million skilled workers by 2028. This alarming prediction is based on labor market analyses that highlight the mismatch between demand and availability of qualified personnel in key sectors crucial for Germany’s economic growth and social services stability.
The study identifies five professions with the largest skills gap in Germany: IT specialists, engineers, care workers (health and elderly care), technical specialists in the craft sector, and sales workers. The shortages particularly affect technology and health-related professions, reflecting both the digital transformation needs and demographic changes such as aging populations increasing the demand for care workers.
The digital transformation is leading to a surge in demand for IT professionals, with employment numbers projected to increase significantly by 26% due to digitization. However, this growth is not matched by an equivalent increase in the number of qualified IT specialists, leading to a projected shortage of around 30,800 early childhood educators and over 40,000 sales workers by 2028.
The retirement of a large number of workers is another major factor contributing to the skills gap. By 2028, it is projected that there will be a shortage of 768,000 qualified professionals, with the main reason being demographic change. The largest increase in employment numbers is expected in childcare, with around 143,400 new positions by 2028, due to the increasing demand for care workers as a result of an aging population.
The IW study also underlines the urgency of upskilling, reskilling, and improving immigration policies to mitigate the looming deficit of skilled workers. The experts suggest encouraging longer working lives as a solution to the skills gap, facilitating large-scale qualified immigration, expanding career guidance in schools, and improving the attractiveness of apprenticeships, particularly in sales and other professions where the shortage is significant.
The employment numbers in banking are projected to decrease due to automation, leading to the closure of branches and a decline in the need for bank clerks. Trained bank clerks are projected to experience a significant decline, with around 56,300 employees leaving the workforce by 2028.
On the other hand, the IW Institute expects a significant decrease in metalworking professions, with a potential loss of around 161,200 skilled workers by 2028. This decline is attributed to the ongoing digitization and automation of manufacturing processes.
The health and nursing professions are also projected to have around 21,350 unfilled positions, highlighting the urgent need for more qualified healthcare workers to meet the growing demand.
In conclusion, the IW study underscores the need for immediate action to address the skills gap in Germany. The looming shortage of skilled workers in key sectors could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s economic growth and social services stability. By taking proactive measures such as upskilling, reskilling, and improving immigration policies, Germany can mitigate the impact of this skills gap and ensure a secure future for its workforce and economy.
The IW study emphasizes the importance of vocational training, particularly in IT, engineering, care work, technical specialties in the craft sector, and sales, due to the projected shortage of around 3.4 million skilled workers by 2028. Education and self-development in these fields, aided by technology, can help bridge this gap, as the digital transformation necessitates more IT professionals and the aging population increases the demand for care workers.
