Skyrocketing Measles Outbreaks Predicted for U.S. over the Next Quarter-Century due to Falling Vaccination Rates
Revamped Rant:
Here's a lowdown on the potentially grim future of measles in the good ol' USA, courtesy of some research published by JAMA.
Listen up, Americans: Revolving door at the White House notwithstanding, vaccine deniers have squirmed their way into the highest echelons of our government and left way too many of us blissfully unaware of the peril that measles poses. To give you a taste of what's at stake, researchers from Stanford University concocted a simulation model that envisions the impact of plummeting vaccination rates on measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria in the US.
Let's dive deep into the bad news first: Imagine an apocalyptic scenario where vaccination rates drop by 50%. In such a hellscape, their model suggests that over the next 25 years, we would see a jaw-dropping 51.2 million measles cases, coupled with 159,200 deaths and an astounding 10.3 million hospitalizations. The same 25-year period would also witness 9.9 million cases of rubella, 4.3 million cases of polio, and a measly 197 cases of diphtheria. Tragically, we once managed to eradicate measles in 2000, and only recently have outbreaks reared their ugly head again.
On a more optimistic note, if vaccination rates remained at their 2025 levels, the next 25 years would still see more than 850,000 measles cases in the US – and simply holding steady wouldn't cut it, as the researchers demonstrate that we'd maintain an 83% chance of measles becoming endemic again within about 21 years on average.
Now, let's talk about Measly McHospitalization's Meaner Brother: a 10% drop in MMR (measles, mumps, and rubella) immunization rates could mean as many as 11.1 million measles cases in the US over the next 25 years. On the flip side, a rise of just 5% in vaccinations would limit measles to a paltry 5,800 cases. To achieve herd immunity for measles, the population needs a vaccination rate of roughly 95%. The researchers estimate current vaccination coverage in their models at between 87.7% and 95.6%.
Breaking down the numbers by state, New York, for instance, boasts an estimated childhood vaccination rate of 97.7% for the 2023-24 school year, while Idaho lags behind with a rate of just 79.6%. Before the measles vaccine was introduced in 1963, somewhere between 3 million and 4 million Americans got the measles every year, and tens of thousands were hospitalized. Roughly 400-500 people died each year from the disease, although death isn't the only devastating consequence of measles.
We're smack in the middle of our worst measles outbreak in a quarter century, affecting at least 800 cases across 25 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Illinois just confirmed its first case on Thursday, and three people have already perished from the measles this year in the US: two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.
Double, double, toil, and trouble: some parents of the dead children have actually stood by their decision not to vaccinate their offspring. In Texas, the parents of a 6-year-old girl who passed away on February 26 defended their choice, pointing out that four of their other children, also unvaccinated, are alive and kicking. The father of an 8-year-old girl who died on April 3 echoed the same sentiment, claiming she passed due to something unrelated to measles and poor hospital care. Both families have ties to Children's Health Defense, a sketchy anti-vaccine organization that pushes bogus vaccination-autism links. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the current head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), was the head of Children's Health Defense until 2023.
To make matters even stickier, Kennedy recently declared that he would reveal the root cause of autism by the fall. He's been spearheading what he calls the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement, recruitin' a team of scientists to tackle an alleged autism epidemic, and is rumored to be compiling a database of private health records of Americans to support his research.
During a speech on Tuesday, Kennedy vented that severely autistic individuals don't pay taxes or go on dates, and his finger-pointing at food dyes and other bogus scapegoats continues unabated. As more and more people buy into this anti-science nonsense, measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases will inevitably make a resurgence.
With Donald Trump staying in the White House for the next four years (and possibly beyond), there's little hope that we'll see MMR vaccination rates improve over the coming years. It's up to us, folks, to educate ourselves and save our country from another dark age of disease.
- In the future, the alarming decrease in vaccination rates, as projected by the simulation model, may lead to a surge in medical-conditions such as measles, rubella, polio, and diphtheria, reviving threats that were previously controlled.
- Gizmodo reports that if vaccination rates drop by 50%, over the next 25 years, we could witness around 51.2 million measles cases, causing 159,200 deaths and 10.3 million hospitalizations.
- By 2025, the US could still see over 850,000 measles cases even if vaccination rates remain stagnant, with an 83% chance of measles becoming endemic again within about 21 years on average.
- A 10% drop in MMR immunization rates may result in as many as 11.1 million measles cases in the US over the next 25 years.
- On the contrary, a 5% increase in vaccinations would keep measles cases down to 5,800. To achieve herd immunity for measles, a vaccination rate of approximately 95% is required.
- As per the 2023-24 school year estimates, New York boasts a childhood vaccination rate of 97.7%, while Idaho trails behind with a rate of only 79.6%.
- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported a measles outbreak affecting at least 800 cases across 25 states, with Illinois confirming its first case on Thursday.
- Tragically, three people have already died from the measles in the US this year, including two children in Texas and an adult in New Mexico.
- The prevalence of antivaccination attitudes and policies, such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s, who headed Children's Health Defense until 2023, may contribute to the resurgence of preventable diseases like measles in the future.
- Kennedy has announced plans to reveal the alleged root cause of autism by the fall, continuing his crusade against vaccines and questioning the role of food dyes in causing the condition.
- As Kennedy's anti-science movement gains traction, it becomes increasingly crucial for individuals to prioritize health-and-wellness education, mental-health awareness, and personal-growth for a more informed and resilient society.
- With ongoing concerns about war-and-conflicts, career-development, policy-and-legislation, politics, general-news, and crime-and-justice, it is essential to balance these concerns with efforts to combat potential awfullness such as preventable diseases and misinformation.
